Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 214.352974 258.657289 312.833294 384.979168 480.119175 603.611651 7.800012e+02
2025-08-17 157.523315 206.786042 274.311800 376.841237 534.699785 779.970834 1.215888e+03
2025-08-24 125.739506 174.518592 246.761002 367.189277 575.550821 949.791714 1.756084e+03
2025-08-31 104.957663 151.765348 225.221860 356.875021 607.243771 1116.386900 2.427464e+03
2025-09-07 97.355216 146.810549 229.249749 388.981439 726.713714 1522.390427 4.101678e+03
2025-09-14 87.186981 135.535004 219.779932 392.920684 790.805399 1850.000942 6.083614e+03
2025-09-21 80.237151 128.337304 215.749909 406.001856 881.439697 2321.900595 9.667948e+03
2025-09-28 72.756550 118.950665 205.688090 403.265677 932.110682 2723.007889 1.423114e+04
2025-10-05 70.344918 118.332769 212.393924 440.183634 1110.976987 3786.204338 2.904890e+04
2025-10-12 67.442581 116.294189 215.733339 470.201397 1289.533856 5137.103715 6.242236e+04
2025-10-19 64.189228 113.069591 215.891303 492.245803 1458.299872 6785.372735 1.435527e+05
2025-10-26 60.679605 108.838461 213.033020 505.328365 1605.660225 8684.556607 3.594462e+05
2025-11-02 56.699211 103.346626 206.846335 508.742185 1726.969173 10867.504835 1.087705e+06
2025-11-09 52.375814 96.642841 196.778383 497.867590 1782.132478 12755.854125 3.584408e+06
2025-11-16 48.428989 90.311277 186.657583 484.194711 1818.149412 14706.030247 1.767972e+07
2025-11-23 44.897012 84.508080 176.992944 469.500916 1841.783018 16750.100907 2.552548e+08
2025-11-30 44.414627 85.394617 184.397131 515.466921 2248.158743 27843.060158 NaN
2025-12-07 42.261611 82.246100 180.759580 521.136309 2424.897219 36994.878879 NaN
2025-12-14 40.777310 80.479747 180.564456 540.004975 2719.989952 54899.033525 NaN
2025-12-21 38.633280 76.942347 174.961064 536.052630 2849.315774 70798.572711 NaN
2025-12-28 38.436834 78.031664 182.598566 589.627116 3538.031303 150092.228512 NaN
2026-01-04 37.851764 78.105501 187.339626 633.570465 4252.305222 329702.751249 NaN
2026-01-11 36.945910 77.279787 189.261878 666.051849 4943.618960 750909.824139 NaN